Apologies I know that’s a confusing headline but… this whole thing is… complex. So I thought lets start from there and try and unravel it a bit!
One thing that most of the commentators seemed to have missed is this:
Since the EU Referendum in 2016 everyone has been talking about ‘a Deal’. Much of the time when people were talking about the ‘deal’ they were referring exclusively or mainly to a trade deal with the EU.
So there is an assumption that Theresa May’s Draft Withdrawal Agreement (DWA), otherwise known as ‘The Deal’ is an agreement for a trade deal.
Unfortunately It’s not. Theresa May has failed to negotiate a trade deal. When she started working against her Ministers in the Department for Exiting the EU (DEXEU), behind their backs, in the early part of this year, she undermined all of the efforts that were well advanced to deliver a trade deal. Then she announced her duplicity in July (Chequers), they quit, and there has been pretty much no further progress on delivering a trade deal since.
Instead this DWA (Draft Withdrawal Agreement) simply keeps the UK in the customs union until December 2020 and essentially forever more, unless a Trade deal is subsequently agreed by both the EU and the UK which overcomes the supposed ‘Hard Border’ problem in Northern Ireland.
Despite not being a deal, for the EU, it is the perfect ‘deal’. They get to do all the trade deals with other countries, set the tariffs and quota levels and make all the regulations without even a smidgen of British influence. And most importantly, without any UK MEPs in the EU Parliament, they even stop Nigel Farage making those embarrassing Youtube videos every week. The final tiny little element of scrutiny that Sir Nige has been providing is gone!
It should be no surprise, as Tony Bliar revealed this week in his interview with Channel 4 news, that the EU are absolutely cockahoop!! This no deal, deal is an absolute dream!
For us it’s utterly miserable. Most Leave voters felt the major problem with being a member of the EU was that we were largely a vassal state, so they voted to ‘Take Back Control’..
And most Remain voters, in my experience, didn’t understand that the EU is not democratic – they were fooled by the existence of the virtually powerless EU Parliament, into thinking it is.
But this No Deal ‘Deal’ should really leave no-one in any doubt. It’s gold platted vassal state status with knobs on. Essentially the unelected EU Commission get to make all the rules, the other 27 EU states get to have a smidgen of influence and the idiots from the island get told what to do..!!
Which is why it looks likely to fail to get through Parliament. And there is no way it will get through with DUP and Conservative votes as things stand.
However, if an amendment were attached to it, that makes it subject to a Referendum (Option 1 – Accept or Option 2 Reject and Remain, for example) then it could potentially pass with Labour votes..
So the question is – what skullduggery is afoot in the Labour Party?
The EU are going ahead with arrangements for the big summit on the 25th November so they clearly think this can get through Parliament…